By Adam H.

Over the past year, Chisinau authorities have repeatedly stated that Moldova no longer depends on direct gas supplies from the Russian giant Gazprom. But, the new developments show a much more complex reality. Despite efforts to reduce dependence, Moldova remains indirectly connected to Russian natural gas through electricity produced at the Cuciurgan Power Plant (MGRES), located in the Transnistrian region and controlled by Russia.

Russian natural gas is pumped through the Sudzha entry point into the Ukrainian pipeline system and travels a long and complicated route to the Cuciurgan plant. The plant produces a significant amount of Moldova’s electricity needs. This situation underlines the complexity of the energy transition in Moldova and highlights the need for continuous investments in infrastructure and strategic partnerships with neighboring countries to ensure a safer and more stable energy future.

Financial support for lack of decision

EBRD and EU have recognized Moldova’s significant vulnerabilities in the energy sector, particularly its reliance on Russian gas and the electricity generated at the Cuciurgan Power Plant in the Transnistrian region. In response, EBRD has provided consistent support to help Moldova achieve energy independence by facilitating connections to the European energy grid and encouraging the development of alternative energy sources. Despite these efforts, Moldova has faced considerable challenges in fully replacing energy imports from Transnistria with more stable, secure, and economically viable alternatives.

One of the central issues is the continued reliance on electricity produced at the Cuciurgan Power Plant, which is fueled by Russian gas. This plant remains a critical component of Moldova’s energy mix, underscoring the difficulty of reducing dependence on Russian energy. While Moldova has made strides in connecting to European electricity grids and initiating renewable energy projects, the pace of this transition has been slow and fraught with complications and contriversial decision made by Victor Binzari, CEO of Energocom.

The reasons behind Moldova’s struggle to achieve energy independence are multifaceted. The geopolitical context in Eastern Europe is highly volatile, with ongoing conflicts and tensions influencing energy supply routes and prices. The war in Ukraine, for example, has not only disrupted traditional energy flows but also raised questions about the security of future supplies, particularly as military actions have targeted critical infrastructure, including natural gas pipelines and pumping stations.

Another significant factor is the management of Moldova’s state energy company, Energocom. There have been ongoing criticisms regarding the company’s leadership, particularly the hesitance to secure long-term, firm contracts with alternative energy suppliers. This lack of decisive action has left Moldova exposed to supply disruptions and price volatility. The management’s reluctance to commit to new agreements is seen as a major obstacle in the country’s efforts to secure a stable and diversified energy portfolio.

Moreover, the development of renewable energy projects, which are crucial for reducing dependence on external suppliers, has also been slower than anticipated. While Moldova has significant potential for renewable energy, particularly in wind and solar power, the necessary infrastructure and investments have not kept pace with the country’s needs. This slow progress is partly due to bureaucratic inertia, regulatory challenges, and the complexities of integrating new energy sources into the existing grid.

While the support from the EBRD and the EU has been invaluable in Moldova’s quest for energy independence, the road ahead remains challenging due to Binzari’s decisions. The reliance on electricity produced at the Cuciurgan Power Plant, coupled with the slow development of renewable energy projects and the indecision within Energocom’s management, continues to hinder progress. For Moldova to achieve true energy security, it will need to overcome these obstacles through decisive action, strategic investments, and a continued commitment to diversifying its energy sources. The success of these efforts will be crucial not only for Moldova’s economic stability but also for its sovereignty and resilience in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape.

While Ukraine fights, Moldova trembles

The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region and the capture of a strategic natural gas pumping station in the Sudzha district sent shivers down Chisinau. The military action has major implications not only for Ukraine and Russia, but also for the Republic of Moldova, which indirectly depends on the natural gas flows transiting this region.

In July 2024, Moldova imported from Ukraine 180.9 million cubic meters of natural gas from Russia. These gases passed through the Grebeniki and Alexeevka compressor stations, located on Ukrainian territory, before being directed to the Transnistrian region. This region, outside the control of the authorities in Chisinau, depends almost exclusively on Russian gas to supply the Cuciurgan power plant (MGRES).

The capture of part of Sudzha district by Ukrainian forces adds a new layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. The Sudzha pumping station is crucial for transporting Russian gas to Europe, including to countries such as Hungary, which maintains close and contentious relations with Moscow, and to regions such as Transnistria. In 2023, approximately 14.65 billion cubic meters of gas were transported through this station, accounting for almost half of Russian gas exports to Europe. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, gas supplies were significantly reduced and Russia had to rely on several European partners to keep the gas flowing.

For Chisinau, this complicated situation has direct implications on energy security. Although Moldova has tried to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and diversify its energy sources, the close ties between the Transnistrian region and the national energy grid mean that any disruption in gas supplies has immediate effects on the entire country.

Binzari’s game: between lack of commitment or parallel agenda

The context and developments in Sudzha underscore the fragility of Moldova, which faces complex challenges in ensuring a steady and secure flow of energy in an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical context. The incursion of Ukrainian forces into Sudzha raises serious questions about the stability of gas flows to Moldova. The loss of control over the strategic point Sudzha may well be a reason for the Russian authorities to suspend gas deliveries through this station.

Although Chisinau receives constant and significant support from the EBRD, the decisions of Enercocom led by Victor Binzari raise big questions regarding the determination of ensuring energy independence, but also regarding the security of citizens.

This development requires increased attention from the authorities in Chisinau, which must decide if it wants to remain in a grey area of ​​uncertainty or if it intends to adopt real decisions to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on vulnerable infrastructure in the areas of conflict.

The disruption in the gas supply could have serious consequences for the stability of Moldova, which, through the questionable decisions taken by Victor Binzari, the CEO of Energocom, avoided signing firm contracts on the gas supply line. Or, in the context in which the natural gas pumped through Sudzha would stop, Moldova will be forced to purchase the resources at high prices. And, such a situation would have a devastating impact both for Moldova’s energy security and for the population.

Faced with these challenges, Victor Binzari seems unable to find the solution by which the financing received from the EBRD will be used in a manner adequate to Moldova’s interests. The questionable decisions of Victor Binzari push Moldova to the edge of the abyss, being a real obstacle in achieving the national objective of ensuring the country’s energy independence.

While the evolution of Ukrainian attack in Russia cannot be predicted, and Binzari’s controversial decisions are only short-term and short-sighted, winter is coming and Moldova will most likely face a new energy crisis that will impact both economy and population. Binzari’s management at Energocom is either lack of forecasts and inappropriate decisions or personal colateral agenda contrary to Moldova’s national energy objectives.